Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ettifaq face Al Riyadh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Riyadh to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Thursday 9 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Al Riyadh have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al-Ettifaq) versus 0.90 (Al Riyadh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 60% of Al Riyadh's (from Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al Riyadh and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Dec 2025, ended Al-Ettifaq 2–0 Al Riyadh — a Al-Ettifaq win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 57% versus Al Riyadh 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 56% | Al Riyadh 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 2.29 xG and Al Riyadh 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.127 / defence 0.957 | Al Riyadh attack 0.729 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.422. Al Riyadh's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ettifaq's projected output up. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 61 games and Al Riyadh's last 61.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 66% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.50 | Draw 5.37 | Al Riyadh 6.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 66% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 2.29 / Al Riyadh 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.127 / def 0.957 | Al Riyadh attack 0.729 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al Riyadh xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 9 April 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 3 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 66% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (1.13) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 61 games and Al Riyadh's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
66%
1.50
19%
5.37
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.28
0.99
Al Riyadh xG
1.50
66%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
10%
9.89
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
66.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.99 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 14D 21L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Al Riyadh sit at 0.95 PPG from 61 outings (14W 16D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Riyadh have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.03 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al Riyadh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 26W 14D 21L in their last 61 games (1.51 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 14W 16D 31L in their last 61 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.43 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Riyadh have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Al-Ettifaq 4-2 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al Riyadh 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al-Ettifaq and 63% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Riyadh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 63% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 63% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 70% of Al Riyadh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Riyadh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 2.29 xG and Al Riyadh 0.99 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Riyadh outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Al Riyadh attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 66% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 15%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Al Riyadh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 56%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.