Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Al-Ettifaq's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 80% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's (from Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2026, ended Al-Ettifaq 0–4 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 57% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 55% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Ettifaq surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Al-Qadisiyah FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.051 / defence 0.956 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.405 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.410. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.405, which lifts their away xG to 1.89. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 60 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 60.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.43 | Draw 4.48 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.89) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.43 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.051 / def 0.956 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.405 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Ettifaq 3 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 29% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 60 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
29%
3.43
22%
4.48
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.32
1.89
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
4%
22.78
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.89 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 14D 21L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.13 PPG from 60 outings (39W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 11W 7D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.90 points per game from their last 29 away games (17W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.92 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al-Qadisiyah FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 25W 14D 21L in their last 60 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 39W 11D 10L in their last 60 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won Al-Qadisiyah FC 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 52%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Ettifaq) and 59% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 31%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 59% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 72% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 55%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.