Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Thursday 19 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al-Ettifaq's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better record in our head-to-head data — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Al-Ettifaq.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Al-Ettifaq 1–2 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Fateh have won 7 of 8 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 56% and Al-Fateh 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 54% | Al-Fateh 56%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Al-Ettifaq recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG and Al-Fateh 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.923 / defence 0.868 | Al-Fateh attack 0.819 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.329. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 55 games and Al-Fateh's last 55.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 3.31 | Al-Fateh 3.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record in our data (7 wins to 1), but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.23 / Al-Fateh 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.923 / def 0.868 | Al-Fateh attack 0.819 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Fateh xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 19 February 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ettifaq 4 - 3 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 55 games and Al-Fateh's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.31
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.17
0.94
Al-Fateh xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.94 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 24W 13D 18L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Fateh's form line: 17W 12D 26L from 55 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 27 home games (10W 6D 11L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 7D 14L from their last 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.33 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 67%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 games (1.55 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 17W 12D 26L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won Al-Fateh 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 48%, Al-Fateh 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ettifaq) and 48% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 56% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 48% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 74% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al-Fateh 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Fateh 4-3 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG and Al-Fateh 0.94 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Al-Fateh attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 28%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Fateh 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.