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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to EGO Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 February 2025 at 15:05 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq's home record at EGO Stadium: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.

Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Al-Ettifaq.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.

It is worth noting that Al-Fateh have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 47% and Al-Fateh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al-Fateh 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 2.07 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.917 / defence 1.317 | Al-Fateh attack 0.701 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.337. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Al-Ettifaq games / 53 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 57% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fateh 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Fateh 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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