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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Fayha travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 15:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Raed, 3 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 5–0 with Al-Raed winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al-Fayha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 55% | Al-Fayha 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.23 xG and Al-Fayha 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.737 / defence 1.139 | Al-Fayha attack 0.827 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.344. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Al-Raed games / 53 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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