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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wehda Club face Al-Ittihad FC.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Al Wehda Club. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 2W 3D 5L at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ittihad FC's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ittihad FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Al Wehda Club.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–7 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wehda Club 62% and Al-Ittihad FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wehda Club 64% | Al-Ittihad FC 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.30 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.976 / defence 1.340 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.130 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.352. Data: 53 Al Wehda Club games / 53 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

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