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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 82% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 8W 1D 1L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.40 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Fateh and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Fateh winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% | Al-Fateh 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.13 xG and Al-Fateh 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.320 / defence 0.821 | Al-Fateh attack 0.779 / defence 1.505. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.338. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 3.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.505 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 52 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 82% | Draw 11% | Al-Fateh 7%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.22 | Draw 9.09 | Al-Fateh 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (82%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.99 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Al-Fateh 50%.

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