🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Al-Ettifaq at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:40 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ettifaq's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Okhdood) versus 1.10 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ettifaq in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al-Ettifaq 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al-Ettifaq 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 56% | Al-Ettifaq 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.00 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.788 / defence 1.106 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.115 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.334. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Al Okhdood games / 52 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 1.92. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Ettifaq 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights