Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Kingdom Arena to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 3.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Kingdom Arena: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Kingdom Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.92 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.850 / defence 0.773 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.055 / defence 0.688. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.357. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.850 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.688 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 56 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.92 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.850 / def 0.773 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.055 / def 0.688 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 56% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.85) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.52
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.11
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
3%
31.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.11 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 56 games, going 47W 6D 3L for 2.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 1.95 PPG from 56 outings (33W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 26W 2D 0L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 1.68 points per game from 28 outings (14W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.98 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.95 scored and 0.96 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Ahli Jeddah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 47W 6D 3L in their last 56 games (2.62 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 33W 10D 13L in their last 56 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.86 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 9 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 57% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 57% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-3 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.92 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.11 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.85 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.05 / defence 0.69, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 22%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ahli Jeddah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.95. Form was overturned, with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.