Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (2.50 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Hazm in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% versus Al-Hazm 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% | Al-Hazm 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 xG and Al-Hazm 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.450 / defence 0.763 | Al-Hazm attack 0.870 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.351. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 19 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hazm 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Hazm 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 / Al-Hazm 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.450 / def 0.763 | Al-Hazm attack 0.870 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Hazm xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 5 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 66% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.45x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.87x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.94
14%
7.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.06
0.90
Al-Hazm xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
7.21
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
62.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.90 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 13W 5D 1L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 5W 6D 8L from 19 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.40 PPG from 10 outings (7W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.05 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 13W 5D 1L in their last 19 games (2.32 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.40 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 70% for Al-Hazm — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 60% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 70% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 60% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 xG and Al-Hazm 0.90 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.45 / defence 0.76 against Al-Hazm attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 14%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%, Al-Hazm 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.