Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Widzewa Lodz plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 22). Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended Widzew Łódź 0–1 Cracovia Krakow — a Cracovia Krakow win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Cracovia Krakow 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Cracovia Krakow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.13 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.972 / defence 1.243 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.894 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.176. Widzew Łódź's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cracovia Krakow's projected output up. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 55 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 55.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 39%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.31 | Draw 3.25 | Cracovia Krakow 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 60% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Lodz • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.13 / Cracovia Krakow 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.972 / def 1.243 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.894 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 22) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 30% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.97x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.89x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 55 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
30%
3.31
31%
3.25
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.43
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.31 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 18W 9D 28L from 55 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 16L across 55 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.51 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 12W 4D 11L from their last 27 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 12W 6D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.55 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 65%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 18W 9D 28L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 22W 17D 16L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.48 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
4
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 44%, Cracovia Krakow 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Widzew Łódź) and 59% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 33%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 63% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 59% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 70% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Widzew Łódź's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.13 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.89 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 39%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Cracovia Krakow 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.15 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.