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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 21 as Wisla Plock welcome Widzew Łódź to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orlen Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wisla Plock trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 55% versus Widzew Łódź 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 20% | Widzew Łódź 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.43 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.917 / defence 0.824 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.963 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.170. Data: 20 Wisla Plock games / 54 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 23%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Widzew Łódź 4.35. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 40% | Widzew Łódź 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 1W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wisla Plock 3 – 4 Widzew Łódź • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Wisla Plock 0% / Draw 67% / Widzew Łódź 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 30% / away 23% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.36 (42% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 100%, Poisson probability 48% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L • Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L • Wisla Plock home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | CS 5 • Widzew Łódź away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: Wisla Plock lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Wisla Plock): Poisson xG of 1.43 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Widzew Łódź): Poisson projects 0.93 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.36 (42% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 48% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Wisla Plock — Wisla Plock at 47% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Wisla Plock 1.43 / Widzew Łódź 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.917 / def 0.824 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.963 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Widzew Łódź xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Wisla Plock 0 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 47% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
• Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 1W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Wisla Plock 3 – 4 Widzew Łódź • H2H markets: BTTS 100% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Wisla Plock 0% / Draw 67% / Widzew Łódź 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 30% / away 23% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.36 (42% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 100%, Poisson probability 48% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź in?
• Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L • Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L • Wisla Plock home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | CS 5 • Widzew Łódź away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: Wisla Plock lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Wisla Plock): Poisson xG of 1.43 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Widzew Łódź): Poisson projects 0.93 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.36 (42% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 48% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Wisla Plock — Wisla Plock at 47% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture