Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin meet at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:45 UTC.
Current Form
Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's home record at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.20 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pogon Szczecin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gornik Zabrze lead 5W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 3–0 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 51% versus Pogon Szczecin 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 47% | Pogon Szczecin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.79 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.101 / defence 0.970 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.844 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.149. Data: 55 Gornik Zabrze games / 55 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 18%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Pogon Szczecin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Pogon Szczecin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.79 / Pogon Szczecin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.101 / def 0.970 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.844 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 56% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (9 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 5W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.84x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.83
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.73
0.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
3%
33.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.94 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 12D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.51 PPG from 55 outings (24W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.51 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 14W 5D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (5W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.64 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 23W 12D 20L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 24W 11D 20L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.74 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 1-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 52%, Pogon Szczecin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Gornik Zabrze) and 52% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 30% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 56% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 52% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.79 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 18%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.47 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.