Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 42%, yet in-form Wisla Plock provide a compelling counter-argument — this Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Wojska Polskiego — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Wojska Polskiego than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Plock have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Wisla Plock arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 62% versus Wisla Plock 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Legia Warszawa 43% | Wisla Plock 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.19 xG and Wisla Plock 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.886 / defence 1.002 | Wisla Plock attack 0.745 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.150. Data: 55 Legia Warszawa games / 21 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 33% | Wisla Plock 25%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Wisla Plock 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Plock (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Legia Warszawa 50% | Wisla Plock 78% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 33% | Wisla Plock 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.19 / Wisla Plock 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.886 / def 1.002 | Wisla Plock attack 0.745 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Wisla Plock xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 42% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
Record (5 meetings): Legia Warszawa 2W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.74x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
42%
2.37
33%
3.07
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.04
0.86
Wisla Plock xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.86 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 9D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (8W 9D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (1W 6D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.10 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 9D 8L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 8W 9D 4L in their last 21 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Wisla Plock away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.33 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Legia Warszawa, 78% for Wisla Plock — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 56% for Legia Warszawa and 11% for Wisla Plock.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Legia Warszawa's games and 78% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 11% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Wisla Plock 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Wisla Plock 2-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.19 xG and Wisla Plock 0.86 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Wisla Plock attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 33% | Wisla Plock 25%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 43%, Wisla Plock 19%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Legia Warszawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.