🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Form

Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego than their overall form suggests.

Jagiellonia have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jagiellonia away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.70 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cracovia Krakow lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 2–5 with Jagiellonia winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 66% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 57% | Jagiellonia 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.20 xG and Jagiellonia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.959 / defence 0.967 | Jagiellonia attack 1.057 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.201. Data: 54 Cracovia Krakow games / 53 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 35% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 36%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights