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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Form

Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Widzew Łódź have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.60 PPG lead over Widzew Łódź (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Pogon Szczecin have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 7 meetings, with Widzew Łódź managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 50% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Widzew Łódź 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.53 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.122 / defence 1.041 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.035 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.185. Data: 56 Pogon Szczecin games / 56 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 30%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Widzew Łódź 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Widzew Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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