Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 6W 2D 2L at Chorten Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Chorten Arena than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Radomiak Radom in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Jagiellonia, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Radomiak Radom — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jagiellonia and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 63% and Radomiak Radom 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 56% | Radomiak Radom 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.426 / defence 1.011 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.002 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.144. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.426 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Jagiellonia games / 54 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 63% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 17%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Radomiak Radom 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 63% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Jagiellonia 2.34 / Radomiak Radom 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.426 / def 1.011 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.002 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Radomiak Radom xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 63% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Record (9 meetings): Jagiellonia 5W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.00x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
63%
1.59
20%
4.90
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.50
1.16
Radomiak Radom xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
10%
10.40
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
2%
62.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.16 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 54 games, going 27W 16D 11L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.26 PPG from 54 outings (18W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 15W 6D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.54 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 69%.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 27W 16D 11L in their last 54 games (1.80 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.04 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Jagiellonia, 68% for Radomiak Radom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Jagiellonia and 72% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Jagiellonia's games and 68% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jagiellonia's matches and 72% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.16 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.43 / defence 1.01 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 63% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 17%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Radomiak Radom 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.