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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Current Form

Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 6W 2D 2L at Chorten Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Chorten Arena than their overall form suggests.

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Radomiak Radom in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Jagiellonia, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Radomiak Radom — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Jagiellonia winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jagiellonia and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 63% and Radomiak Radom 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 56% | Radomiak Radom 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.426 / defence 1.011 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.002 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.144. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.426 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Jagiellonia games / 54 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 63% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 17%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Radomiak Radom 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.

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