🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 44%, yet in-form Piast Gliwice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Cracovia Krakow host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego than their overall form suggests.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Piast Gliwice's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Piast Gliwice — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 3 for Piast Gliwice and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 64% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 54% | Piast Gliwice 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.34 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.897 / defence 0.858 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.959 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.160. Data: 56 Cracovia Krakow games / 56 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 25%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Piast Gliwice 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Piast Gliwice (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Piast Gliwice 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights