Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Widzewa Lodz plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Widzewa Lodz: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Cracovia Krakow 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Cracovia Krakow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.13 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.972 / defence 1.243 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.894 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.176. Data: 55 Widzew Łódź games / 55 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 39%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Cracovia Krakow 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Lodz • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.13 / Cracovia Krakow 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.972 / def 1.243 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.894 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 30% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (7 meetings): Widzew Łódź 3W | Draws 3 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.97x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.89x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
30%
3.31
31%
3.25
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.43
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.31 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 18W 9D 28L from 55 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 16L across 55 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.51 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 12W 4D 11L from 27 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 12W 6D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.55 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 18W 9D 28L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 22W 17D 16L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.48 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
4
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 44%, Cracovia Krakow 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Widzew Łódź) and 59% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 33%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 63% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 59% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Widzew Łódź's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.13 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.89 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 39%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Cracovia Krakow 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.15 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.