Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to take on Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lechia Gdansk — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Radomiak Radom's games and 70% of Lechia Gdansk's (from Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Lechia Gdansk's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Radomiak Radom hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for Lechia Gdansk and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2025, ended Radomiak Radom 2–1 Lechia Gdansk — a Radomiak Radom win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Radomiak Radom and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 69% and Lechia Gdansk 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 59% | Lechia Gdansk 62%). Note also that Lechia Gdansk surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Radomiak Radom recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.989 / defence 0.984 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.107 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.098. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 64 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 64.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.18 | Draw 3.71 | Lechia Gdansk 3.69. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Radomiak Radom 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Lechia Gdansk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 60% (last 10 home games) | Lechia Gdansk 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.61 / Lechia Gdansk 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.989 / def 0.984 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.107 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lechia Gdansk xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 4 May 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 31) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 46% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.99x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 64 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.71
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.81
1.20
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
5%
18.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.20 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 18D 25L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.25 PPG from 64 outings (22W 14D 28L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.27 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 14W 9D 8L across their last 31 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 0.94 points per game from their last 31 away games (7W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.58 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Lechia Gdansk in 69%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Lechia Gdansk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 games (1.27 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 22W 14D 28L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.65 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 4 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Radomiak Radom have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2022, when Radomiak Radom won Radomiak Radom 4-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
1
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 6, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2026: Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 68%, Lechia Gdansk at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Radomiak Radom and 71% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Radomiak Radom's games and 74% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 71% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 90% of Lechia Gdansk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 3-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 59%, Lechia Gdansk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.