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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Wisla Plock host Radomiak Radom at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:15 UTC.

Form Guide

Wisla Plock — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Orlen Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.20 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 52% and Radomiak Radom 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 31% | Radomiak Radom 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.09 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.696 / defence 1.031 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.851 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.154. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Wisla Plock games / 63 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 36% | Draw 33% | Radomiak Radom 31%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Radomiak Radom 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 30% | Radomiak Radom 80%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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