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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 31 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Jagiellonia to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at zondacrypto Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Raków Częstochowa, 3 for Jagiellonia and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Jagiellonia 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.103 / defence 0.794 | Jagiellonia attack 1.088 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.091. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Raków Częstochowa games / 65 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 25%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Jagiellonia 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Jagiellonia 60%.

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