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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Widzew Łódź travel to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

Legia Warszawa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Widzew Łódź, with 2 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 62% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 48% | Widzew Łódź 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.862 / defence 0.849 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.876 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.122. Data: 64 Legia Warszawa games / 64 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 26%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Widzew Łódź 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 60% | Widzew Łódź 40%.

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