Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Widzew Łódź travel to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Legia Warszawa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Widzew Łódź, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 62% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 48% | Widzew Łódź 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.862 / defence 0.849 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.876 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.122. Data: 64 Legia Warszawa games / 64 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 26%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Widzew Łódź 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 60% | Widzew Łódź 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.12 / Widzew Łódź 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.862 / def 0.849 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.876 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Widzew Łódź xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 41% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
Record (7 meetings): Legia Warszawa 4W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.86) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
41%
2.47
34%
2.95
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
1.95
0.83
Widzew Łódź xG
2.47
41%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.83 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 22D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.19 PPG from 64 outings (21W 13D 30L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.42 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 15W 10D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.78 points per game from 32 outings (6W 7D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.16 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 23W 22D 19L in their last 64 games (1.42 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 21W 13D 30L in their last 64 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.72 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 59%, Widzew Łódź 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Legia Warszawa) and 53% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Legia Warszawa's games and 59% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 53% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Widzew Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.83 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.86 / defence 0.85 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 26%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 48%, Widzew Łódź 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.42 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.