Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Raków Częstochowa make the trip to Polsat Plus Arena to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Polsat Plus Arena, Lechia Gdansk have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lechia Gdansk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Raków Częstochowa in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Raków Częstochowa, who have claimed 6 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Raków Częstochowa have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 68% versus Raków Częstochowa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 62% | Raków Częstochowa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 2.04 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.317 / defence 1.070 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.132 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.150. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Lechia Gdansk games / 63 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 52% | Draw 23% | Raków Częstochowa 25%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Raków Częstochowa 4.00. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 80% | Raków Częstochowa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 52% | Draw 23% | Raków Częstochowa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Lechia Gdansk 2.04 / Raków Częstochowa 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.317 / def 1.070 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.132 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Raków Częstochowa xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 52% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (7 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 6W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 1.32x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.13x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.33
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
3.44
1.39
Raków Częstochowa xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
13%
7.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
3%
30.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.39 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 14D 27L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.78 PPG from 63 outings (32W 16D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 15W 6D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.78 points per game from 32 outings (16W 9D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.46 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 22W 14D 27L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 32W 16D 15L in their last 63 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.59 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lechia Gdansk
0
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 62%, Raków Częstochowa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lechia Gdansk) and 38% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 47% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 38% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 2.04 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.39 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.32 / defence 1.07 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.13 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 52% | Draw 23% | Raków Częstochowa 25%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Raków Częstochowa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 62%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.