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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 42%, yet in-form Radomiak Radom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Radomiak Radom arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Radomiak Radom in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 5W, Radomiak Radom 4W, 0D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 63% and Radomiak Radom 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 54% | Radomiak Radom 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.35 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.914 / defence 1.087 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.869 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.113. Data: 65 Cracovia Krakow games / 65 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 28%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Radomiak Radom 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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