Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Cracovia Krakow at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 5W 2D 3L at KGHM Zaglebie Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Zaglebie Lubin have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zaglebie Lubin's 30% rate and Cracovia Krakow's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Cracovia Krakow have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 encounters against Zaglebie Lubin's 1 victories.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Cracovia Krakow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 52% versus Cracovia Krakow 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Cracovia Krakow 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.840 / defence 0.897 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.789 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.116. Data: 64 Zaglebie Lubin games / 64 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 4.76. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Cracovia Krakow lead the H2H ledger, but Zaglebie Lubin carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 / Cracovia Krakow 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.840 / def 0.897 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.789 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cracovia Krakow xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 49% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (9 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 4 | Cracovia Krakow 4W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.34
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.15
0.79
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.79 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 22W 14D 28L from 64 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 21L across 64 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.25 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 13W 8D 11L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 13W 7D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.45 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 64%.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 22W 14D 28L in their last 64 games (1.25 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 20D 21L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.47 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
5
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Cracovia Krakow 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 56% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 56% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 56% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 0-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.79 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 21%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Cracovia Krakow 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.