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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.

Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lechia Gdansk in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Radomiak Radom hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Lechia Gdansk, with 1 draws in between.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Radomiak Radom and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 69% and Lechia Gdansk 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 59% | Lechia Gdansk 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.989 / defence 0.984 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.107 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.098. Data: 64 Radomiak Radom games / 64 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Lechia Gdansk 3.70. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Lechia Gdansk 70% BTTS from recent games.

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