Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.
Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lechia Gdansk in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Radomiak Radom hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Lechia Gdansk, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Radomiak Radom and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 69% and Lechia Gdansk 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 59% | Lechia Gdansk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.989 / defence 0.984 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.107 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.098. Data: 64 Radomiak Radom games / 64 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Lechia Gdansk 3.70. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Lechia Gdansk 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.61 / Lechia Gdansk 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.989 / def 0.984 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.107 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lechia Gdansk xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 May 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 46% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (7 meetings): Radomiak Radom 5W | Draws 1 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.99x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.71
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.81
1.20
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
5%
18.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.20 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 18D 25L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.25 PPG from 64 outings (22W 14D 28L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.27 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 14W 9D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 0.94 points per game from 31 outings (7W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.58 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Lechia Gdansk in 69%.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 games (1.27 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 22W 14D 28L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.65 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Radomiak Radom have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Radomiak Radom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
1
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 6, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 68%, Lechia Gdansk at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Radomiak Radom and 71% for Lechia Gdansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Radomiak Radom's games and 74% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 71% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 3-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 46% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 27%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 59%, Lechia Gdansk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.