Motor Lublin 3-3 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Motor Lublin at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Motor Lublin Arena plays host to Motor Lublin versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Motor Lublin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Motor Lublin's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Motor Lublin Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Motor Lublin's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Motor Lublin, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Motor Lublin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Motor Lublin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 58% versus Cracovia Krakow 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 52% | Cracovia Krakow 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.29 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.886 / defence 0.922 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.736 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.094. Data: 66 Motor Lublin games / 66 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 48% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 20%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Cracovia Krakow 5.00. Motor Lublin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Motor Lublin 60% | Cracovia Krakow 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Motor Lublin Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 48% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Motor Lublin 1.29 / Cracovia Krakow 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.886 / def 0.922 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.736 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cracovia Krakow xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Motor Lublin Arena.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Motor Lublin 3 - 3 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Motor Lublin Arena.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 48% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Motor Lublin 1W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Motor Lublin's attack rating (0.89) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.74x) against Motor Lublin's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.14
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.03
0.74
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 0.74 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Motor Lublin have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 24W 19D 23L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 23W 22D 21L from 66 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Motor Lublin against 1.38 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Motor Lublin have posted 1.45 PPG from 33 outings (12W 12D 9L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 13W 8D 12L from 33 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.41 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 24W 19D 23L in their last 66 games (1.38 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.45 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Motor Lublin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 6-2 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Motor Lublin have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Motor Lublin
1
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 4 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Motor Lublin 3-3 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 58%, Cracovia Krakow 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Motor Lublin) and 54% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Motor Lublin's games and 54% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 54% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 33, as Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.29 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.74 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 48% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 20%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Cracovia Krakow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.38 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.