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Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Wisla Plock welcome Motor Lublin to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 4W 3D 3L at Orlen Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Motor Lublin — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Motor Lublin's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.20 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 0 for Motor Lublin and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Motor Lublin in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 48% versus Motor Lublin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 32% | Motor Lublin 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.01 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.610 / defence 1.059 | Motor Lublin attack 1.047 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.091. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.610 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Wisla Plock games / 65 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 33% | Motor Lublin 38%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Motor Lublin 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 30% | Motor Lublin 70%.

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