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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 35%, yet in-form Lech Poznan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Lech Poznan travel to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Form points away from home here. Lech Poznan's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lech Poznan, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Radomiak Radom.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–4 with Lech Poznan winning.

It is worth noting that Lech Poznan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 68% and Lech Poznan 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 59% | Lech Poznan 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.08 xG and Lech Poznan 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.107 / defence 0.966 | Lech Poznan attack 0.979 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.113. Lech Poznan's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Radomiak Radom games / 66 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 33%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Lech Poznan 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lech Poznan (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 60% | Lech Poznan 40%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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