Wisla Plock 0-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Gornik Zabrze travel to Orlen Stadion to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Orlen Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.20 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Wisla Plock have won 1, Gornik Zabrze 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wisla Plock trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 47% versus Gornik Zabrze 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 34% | Gornik Zabrze 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.66 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.557 / defence 1.295 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.815 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.115. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.557 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Wisla Plock games / 66 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 19% | Draw 34% | Gornik Zabrze 47%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 5.26 | Draw 2.94 | Gornik Zabrze 2.13. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Wisla Plock's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 20% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 19% | Draw 34% | Gornik Zabrze 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Wisla Plock 0.66 / Gornik Zabrze 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.557 / def 1.295 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.815 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Gornik Zabrze xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Wisla Plock 0 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 19% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 47% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (5 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 2 | Gornik Zabrze 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (0.56) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
19%
5.21
34%
2.96
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
1.83
1.18
Gornik Zabrze xG
5.21
19%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
6%
16.91
24%
4.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 18.8 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.18 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 12W 9D 11L from 32 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 10L across 32 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.41 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gornik Zabrze's away record stands at 4W 7D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.34 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Current Season
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 12W 9D 11L in their last 32 games (1.41 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 14W 8D 10L in their last 32 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.69 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
2
Draws
3
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 25%, Gornik Zabrze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Wisla Plock and 38% for Gornik Zabrze.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze in 38%; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 44% of games; Gornik Zabrze in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 38% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Wisla Plock 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Wisla Plock 0-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 0.66 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.18 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.56 / defence 1.29 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 19% | Draw 34% | Gornik Zabrze 47%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 34%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.41 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.