Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Raków Częstochowa have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Piast Gliwice's 3, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 50% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 41% | Raków Częstochowa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.968 / defence 0.998 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.159 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.130. Data: 66 Piast Gliwice games / 66 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 40% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.41 / Raków Częstochowa 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.968 / def 0.998 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.159 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Raków Częstochowa xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 3 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 38% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (9 meetings): Piast Gliwice 3W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 6W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.16x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.54
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.72
1.31
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.31 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 22W 20D 24L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 34W 16D 16L from 66 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (11W 12D 10L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 17W 9D 7L from 33 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.45 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 22W 20D 24L in their last 66 games (1.30 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 34W 16D 16L in their last 66 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.36 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 42%, Raków Częstochowa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Piast Gliwice) and 39% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 42%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 48% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 39% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 1-3 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.31 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 41%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.