Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Korona Kielce make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Korona Kielce away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.20 for Korona Kielce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cracovia Krakow lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 63% versus Korona Kielce 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 54% | Korona Kielce 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG and Korona Kielce 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.847 / defence 0.976 | Korona Kielce attack 0.877 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Data: 67 Cracovia Krakow games / 67 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 31% | Korona Kielce 28%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Korona Kielce 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Korona Kielce 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 31% | Korona Kielce 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.29 / Korona Kielce 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.847 / def 0.976 | Korona Kielce attack 0.877 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Korona Kielce xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 42% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce?
Record (7 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 3W | Draws 3 | Korona Kielce 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.88x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.25
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.30
1.01
Korona Kielce xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.01 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 67 games, going 23W 23D 21L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.30 PPG from 67 outings (22W 21D 24L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.30 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 10W 14D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.03 points per game from 33 outings (7W 13D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.13 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Korona Kielce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 23D 21L in their last 67 games (1.37 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 22W 21D 24L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Korona Kielce away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.33 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 70%, Korona Kielce 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cracovia Krakow) and 33% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 58% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 33% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG and Korona Kielce 1.01 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 31% | Korona Kielce 28%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 54%, Korona Kielce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.37 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.