Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 33 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Pogon Szczecin to KGHM Zaglebie Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.30 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Pogon Szczecin, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Zaglebie Lubin.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 1–5 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
It is worth noting that Pogon Szczecin have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.781 / defence 0.856 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.010 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.101. Zaglebie Lubin's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Zaglebie Lubin games / 66 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 28%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Pogon Szczecin 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 20% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 / Pogon Szczecin 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.781 / def 0.856 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.010 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Pogon Szczecin xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 15 May 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 38% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (8 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 2W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 5W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.78x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
38%
2.64
34%
2.94
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.95 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 15D 28L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.50 PPG from 66 outings (29W 12D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.27 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 13W 9D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 0.88 points per game from 33 outings (7W 8D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.58 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 23W 15D 28L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 29W 12D 25L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.45 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Pogon Szczecin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 27% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 54% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 28%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.