Jagiellonia 4-1 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jagiellonia face Motor Lublin.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin meet at Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Motor Lublin (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Motor Lublin away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.30 for Motor Lublin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Motor Lublin's last 10 away games) — Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Motor Lublin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Jagiellonia edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Jagiellonia 1–1 Motor Lublin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 64% and Motor Lublin 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 56% | Motor Lublin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.90 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.187 / defence 1.021 | Motor Lublin attack 0.953 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.245. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 52 games and Motor Lublin's last 53.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 24% | Motor Lublin 23%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.90 | Draw 4.16 | Motor Lublin 4.27. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Motor Lublin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 70% (last 10 home games) | Motor Lublin 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 20 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 24% | Motor Lublin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Jagiellonia 1.90 / Motor Lublin 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.187 / def 1.021 | Motor Lublin attack 0.953 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Motor Lublin xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin FAQs
What time does Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin?
Jagiellonia 4 - 1 Motor Lublin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 20) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 53% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.19x the league average against Motor Lublin's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (0.95x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Jagiellonia's last 52 games and Motor Lublin's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.16
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.11
1.21
Motor Lublin xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
4%
28.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.21 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia come into this having played 52 games, going 26W 15D 11L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Motor Lublin sit at 1.40 PPG from 52 outings (19W 16D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.40 for Motor Lublin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jagiellonia's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Motor Lublin have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.40 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
Jagiellonia (Home) vs Motor Lublin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jagiellonia
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin Form FAQs
What form are Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 19W 16D 17L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Motor Lublin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.00 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Motor Lublin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Motor Lublin in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jagiellonia have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won Jagiellonia 3-0 Motor Lublin on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
0
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Jagiellonia have won 4, Motor Lublin have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Motor Lublin 1-2 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 62%, Motor Lublin 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Jagiellonia and 67% for Motor Lublin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Motor Lublin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Motor Lublin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jagiellonia's games and 58% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jagiellonia's matches and 67% of Motor Lublin's.
Do Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 75% of Motor Lublin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Motor Lublin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Motor Lublin 4-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.90 xG and Motor Lublin 1.21 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.19 / defence 1.02 against Motor Lublin attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 24% | Motor Lublin 23%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.79 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.