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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Widzewa Lodz to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Widzew Łódź have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Widzewa Lodz this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Widzewa Lodz than their overall form suggests.

Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jagiellonia's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.30 for Jagiellonia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Jagiellonia, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with Jagiellonia winning.

It is worth noting that Jagiellonia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Jagiellonia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 51% | Jagiellonia 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.19 xG and Jagiellonia 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.922 / defence 1.080 | Jagiellonia attack 0.915 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.194. Data: 52 Widzew Łódź games / 51 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 34%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Jagiellonia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Widzew Łódź 50% | Jagiellonia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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