Widzew Łódź 1-3 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Widzewa Lodz to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Widzewa Lodz this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Widzewa Lodz than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.30 for Jagiellonia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Jagiellonia, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–3 with Jagiellonia winning.
It is worth noting that Jagiellonia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Jagiellonia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 51% | Jagiellonia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.19 xG and Jagiellonia 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.922 / defence 1.080 | Jagiellonia attack 0.915 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.194. Data: 52 Widzew Łódź games / 51 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 34%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Jagiellonia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Widzew Łódź 50% | Jagiellonia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Lodz • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.19 / Jagiellonia 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.922 / def 1.080 | Jagiellonia attack 0.915 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Jagiellonia xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 3 Jagiellonia.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 35% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Record (7 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 5W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.92) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.92x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.24
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.37
1.18
Jagiellonia xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.18 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 17W 8D 26L from 51 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 11L across 51 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jagiellonia by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 12W 4D 10L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 10W 9D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.67 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 17W 8D 26L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 25W 15D 11L in their last 51 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Jagiellonia away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.54 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
6
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
From 9 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Jagiellonia 0-2 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 42%, Jagiellonia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Widzew Łódź) and 46% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 31%; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 62% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 46% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 1-3 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.19 xG and Jagiellonia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Jagiellonia attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 34%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 51%, Jagiellonia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.