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Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Motor Lublin Arena to face Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 11:15 UTC.

Current Form

Motor Lublin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Motor Lublin's home record at Motor Lublin Arena: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Pogon Szczecin (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Motor Lublin against 1.10 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Motor Lublin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pogon Szczecin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Motor Lublin lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 1–4 with Pogon Szczecin winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 58% versus Pogon Szczecin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 52% | Pogon Szczecin 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.62 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.939 / defence 1.050 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.821 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.237. Data: 52 Motor Lublin games / 52 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 49% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 24%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 4.17. Motor Lublin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Motor Lublin at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Motor Lublin 60% | Pogon Szczecin 60% BTTS from recent games.

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