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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Gornik Zabrze's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 3W, Radomiak Radom 3W, 3D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with Radomiak Radom winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 48% versus Radomiak Radom 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 45% | Radomiak Radom 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.016 / defence 0.877 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.777 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Data: 67 Gornik Zabrze games / 67 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 21%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Radomiak Radom 4.76. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Radomiak Radom 60%.

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