Gornik Zabrze 6-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Gornik Zabrze's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 3W, Radomiak Radom 2W, 3D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 48% versus Radomiak Radom 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 45% | Radomiak Radom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.016 / defence 0.877 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.777 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Data: 67 Gornik Zabrze games / 67 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 21%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Radomiak Radom 4.76. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Radomiak Radom 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.34 / Radomiak Radom 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.016 / def 0.877 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.777 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Radomiak Radom xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze 6 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 48% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Record (8 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 3W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.02) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.78x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.25
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.15
0.80
Radomiak Radom xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.80 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 28W 16D 23L from 67 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 26L across 67 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.27 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 18W 5D 10L from 33 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 7W 10D 16L across 33 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.46 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 69%.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 28W 16D 23L in their last 67 games (1.49 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 22W 19D 26L in their last 67 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.79 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 4-0 on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 46%, Radomiak Radom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Gornik Zabrze) and 64% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 30% of games; Radomiak Radom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 67% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 64% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Radomiak Radom 6-2 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 21%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 45%, Radomiak Radom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.49 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.