Pogon Szczecin 1-1 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera plays host to Pogon Szczecin versus GKS Katowice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GKS Katowice (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GKS Katowice's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.60 for GKS Katowice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Pogon Szczecin 1W, GKS Katowice 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with GKS Katowice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
GKS Katowice — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 49% versus GKS Katowice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 54% | GKS Katowice 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.36 xG and GKS Katowice 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.084 / defence 0.985 | GKS Katowice attack 0.944 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Data: 67 Pogon Szczecin games / 67 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 30% | GKS Katowice 29%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | GKS Katowice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 60% | GKS Katowice 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 30% | GKS Katowice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.36 / GKS Katowice 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.084 / def 0.985 | GKS Katowice attack 0.944 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
GKS Katowice xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 1 GKS Katowice.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 42% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice?
Record (3 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 0 | GKS Katowice 2W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. GKS Katowice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against GKS Katowice's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — GKS Katowice's attack (0.94x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.37
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.46
1.09
GKS Katowice xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.09 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 67 games, going 30W 12D 25L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.46 PPG from 67 outings (28W 14D 25L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.46 for GKS Katowice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 22W 4D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GKS Katowice have taken 1.09 points per game from 33 outings (10W 6D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.48 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
GKS Katowice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 30W 12D 25L in their last 67 games (1.52 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 28W 14D 25L in their last 67 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or GKS Katowice away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.12 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or GKS Katowice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, GKS Katowice in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GKS Katowice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
2
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice?
From 4 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, GKS Katowice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-1 GKS Katowice.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 46%, GKS Katowice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Pogon Szczecin) and 54% (GKS Katowice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; GKS Katowice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play GKS Katowice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 46% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 54% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 34, as Pogon Szczecin and GKS Katowice drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.36 xG and GKS Katowice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against GKS Katowice attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 42% | Draw 30% | GKS Katowice 29%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 54%, GKS Katowice 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.52 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.