🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Jagiellonia host Zaglebie Lubin at Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Chorten Arena, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Zaglebie Lubin's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

Jagiellonia hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Zaglebie Lubin, with 3 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Jagiellonia a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Zaglebie Lubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 58% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.48 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.182 / defence 1.174 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.035 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Data: 67 Jagiellonia games / 67 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 35%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 90% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights