Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host Arka Gdynia at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at zondacrypto Arena, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Arka Gdynia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Raków Częstochowa have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for Arka Gdynia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Arka Gdynia in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 58% versus Arka Gdynia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 46% | Arka Gdynia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.95 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.008 / defence 0.850 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.830 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Arka Gdynia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Raków Częstochowa games / 33 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 63% | Draw 23% | Arka Gdynia 14%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Arka Gdynia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Arka Gdynia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 63% | Draw 23% | Arka Gdynia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.95 / Arka Gdynia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.008 / def 0.850 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.830 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Arka Gdynia xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia?
Raków Częstochowa 3 - 0 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 63% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 0 | Arka Gdynia 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Arka Gdynia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Arka Gdynia's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Arka Gdynia's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.31
14%
7.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.78
0.83
Arka Gdynia xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
7.09
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
14%
7.05
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
49.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.83 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 33 games, going 15W 7D 11L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Arka Gdynia sit at 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (9W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Arka Gdynia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Arka Gdynia have taken 0.38 points per game from 16 outings (1W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arka Gdynia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 1.03 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Arka Gdynia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 15W 7D 11L in their last 33 games (1.58 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 9W 9D 15L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Arka Gdynia away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.56 PPG; Arka Gdynia away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
0
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia?
From 2 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Arka Gdynia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Arka Gdynia.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 44%, Arka Gdynia 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Raków Częstochowa) and 56% (Arka Gdynia).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Arka Gdynia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Arka Gdynia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 38% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 56% of Arka Gdynia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Arka Gdynia tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Arka Gdynia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Arka Gdynia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Arka Gdynia 3-0 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.95 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.83 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arka Gdynia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.83 / defence 1.40, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 63% | Draw 23% | Arka Gdynia 14%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 46%, Arka Gdynia 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.