🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Raków Częstochowa host Arka Gdynia at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at zondacrypto Arena, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Arka Gdynia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Raków Częstochowa have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for Arka Gdynia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

Arka Gdynia in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 58% versus Arka Gdynia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 46% | Arka Gdynia 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.95 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.008 / defence 0.850 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.830 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Arka Gdynia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Raków Częstochowa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Raków Częstochowa games / 33 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 63% | Draw 23% | Arka Gdynia 14%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Arka Gdynia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Arka Gdynia 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights