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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Wieczysta Kraków travel to to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 July 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at , Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Standings Snapshot

Radomiak Radom hold the table advantage, sitting 16th with 0 points — 2 positions and 0 points clear of Wieczysta Kraków in 18th.

Radomiak Radom's home record this season stands at 0W 0D 0L. On the road, Wieczysta Kraków's record stands at 0W 0D 0L this term. Radomiak Radom: Relegation - Division 1. Wieczysta Kraków: Relegation - Division 1.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.81 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.030 / defence 1.046 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Radomiak Radom games / 0 Wieczysta Kraków games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 55% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 21%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Wieczysta Kraków 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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