Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Jagiellonia.

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Analysis

Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 13:45 UK time.

Form

Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Jagiellonia have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Jagiellonia away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.70 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow edge it 4 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2025, ended Cracovia Krakow 2–5 Jagiellonia — a Jagiellonia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 66% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 57% | Jagiellonia 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cracovia Krakow surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Jagiellonia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.20 xG and Jagiellonia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.959 / defence 0.967 | Jagiellonia attack 1.057 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.201. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 54 games and Jagiellonia's last 53.

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 35% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 36%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.89 | Draw 3.37 | Jagiellonia 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 60% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 70% (last 10 away games).

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