Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Arka Gdynia meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Arka Gdynia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Arka Gdynia have posted 0W 1D 8L from 9 away outings — 0.11 PPG. Away from home they average 0.22 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.11 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 1 for Arka Gdynia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Arka Gdynia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
Arka Gdynia — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 68% versus Arka Gdynia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 63% | Arka Gdynia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.52 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.197 / defence 1.103 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.615 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.199. Arka Gdynia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.456 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Pogon Szczecin games / 19 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 73% | Draw 18% | Arka Gdynia 9%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Arka Gdynia 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Arka Gdynia 22%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 73% | Draw 18% | Arka Gdynia 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 52% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.52 / Arka Gdynia 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.197 / def 1.103 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.615 / def 1.456 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Arka Gdynia xG
52%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 73% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Arka Gdynia will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Arka Gdynia?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 0 | Arka Gdynia 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Arka Gdynia in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Arka Gdynia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.20x the league average against Arka Gdynia's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arka Gdynia's attack (0.61x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 54/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
73%
1.36
18%
5.68
9%
11.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.33
0.81
Arka Gdynia xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
11.15
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
8%
12.39
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
1%
138.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.81 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 6W 4D 9L from 19 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arka Gdynia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Arka Gdynia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.16 for Arka Gdynia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Arka Gdynia's away record stands at 0W 1D 8L across 9 trips, a 0.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arka Gdynia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 0.89 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Arka Gdynia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Arka Gdynia away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.56 PPG; Arka Gdynia away: 0.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
0
Draws
1
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Arka Gdynia?
From 2 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Arka Gdynia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Arka Gdynia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 78%, Arka Gdynia 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Pogon Szczecin and 44% for Arka Gdynia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arka Gdynia in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Arka Gdynia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 78% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 22% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Arka Gdynia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 44% of Arka Gdynia's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Arka Gdynia tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Arka Gdynia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Arka Gdynia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Arka Gdynia 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.52 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.81 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Arka Gdynia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.20 / defence 1.10 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.61 / defence 1.46, drawn from 54/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 73% | Draw 18% | Arka Gdynia 9%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 63%, Arka Gdynia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.16 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.