Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Valerenga travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 1.00 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2 for Valerenga and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Valerenga trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% and Valerenga 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Valerenga 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.10 xG and Valerenga 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.312 / defence 1.124 | Valerenga attack 0.926 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.362. Sarpsborg 08 FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 56 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 26%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Valerenga 3.85. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 90% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.10 / Valerenga 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.312 / def 1.124 | Valerenga attack 0.926 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Valerenga xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 53% chance of winning, Valerenga a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Record (6 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Valerenga (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (1.31) and Valerenga's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
53%
1.88
21%
4.76
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.52
1.42
Valerenga xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
3%
31.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.42 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 23W 10D 23L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga's form line: 19W 11D 26L from 56 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.41 PPG, Valerenga on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 8W 7D 13L from 28 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.54 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Valerenga in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 23W 10D 23L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Valerenga away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.57 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valerenga have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Valerenga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Valerenga have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sarpsborg 08 FF at 71%, Valerenga at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 57% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 68% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 57% of Valerenga's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Valerenga 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Valerenga 3-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.10 xG and Valerenga 1.42 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.31 / defence 1.12 against Valerenga attack 0.93 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 26%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Valerenga 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 PPG, Valerenga 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Valerenga (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.