Stabaek 0-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stabaek face Bodo/Glimt.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stabaek's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Bodo/Glimt hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Stabaek — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 50% versus Bodo/Glimt 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 50% | Bodo/Glimt 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.26 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.751 / defence 0.910 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.498 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.362. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Stabaek games / 56 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stabaek 26% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 51%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Bodo/Glimt 1.96. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 30% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.

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