Stabaek 0-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Stabaek face Bodo/Glimt.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Stabaek's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have the stronger record — 4 wins to Stabaek's 0, with 1 draw.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Stabaek 0–4 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Stabaek — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 50% versus Bodo/Glimt 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 50% | Bodo/Glimt 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.26 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.751 / defence 0.910 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.498 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.362. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.498, which lifts their away xG to 1.86. Data: built from Stabaek's last 26 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 56.

Result probabilities: Stabaek 26% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 51%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.87 | Draw 4.41 | Bodo/Glimt 1.94. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.26 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 30% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights