Brann vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Haugesund travel to Brann Stadion to take on Brann. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brann — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brann's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brann at 1.30 PPG versus Haugesund's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Brann, 1 for Haugesund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2020, ended 1–2 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 73% and Haugesund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.14 xG and Haugesund 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.812 / defence 1.189 | Haugesund attack 0.878 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.287. Data: 32 Brann games / 31 Haugesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Brann 31% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 40%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Haugesund 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 31% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Brann 1.14 / Haugesund 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.812 / def 1.189 | Haugesund attack 0.878 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Haugesund xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Haugesund kick off?
Brann vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Haugesund part of?
Brann vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 31% chance of winning, Haugesund a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brann and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Brann and Haugesund in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.81) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
31%
3.27
29%
3.41
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Brann xG
Total xG
2.49
1.34
Haugesund xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Brann and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Brann and 1.34 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.20 PPG, Haugesund on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 4W 5D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Haugesund away?
Haugesund's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.13 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Haugesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 87%, Haugesund at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Brann and 60% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Brann's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brann's matches and 60% of Haugesund's.
Do Brann and Haugesund tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Haugesund finished level at 0-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.14 xG and Haugesund 1.34 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against Haugesund attack 0.88 / defence 0.84, drawn from 32/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Brann 31% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 40%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.20 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.