Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.28 xG and Tromso 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.411 / defence 0.805 | Tromso attack 0.727 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.287. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Bodo/Glimt games / 3 Tromso games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 71% | Draw 19% | Tromso 10%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Tromso 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 71% | Draw 19% | Tromso 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 48% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.28 / Tromso 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.411 / def 0.805 | Tromso attack 0.727 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Tromso xG
48%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 71% chance of winning, Tromso a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Bodo/Glimt home split: 3.00 PPG from 10 | GF 4.10 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.41x the league average against Tromso's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.73x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
The sample (32/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 3-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.28
10%
10.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.04
0.75
Tromso xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
10.07
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
10%
9.81
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
98.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.75 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
Tromso
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
3
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Tromso have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.28 xG and Tromso 0.75 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.41 / defence 0.81 against Tromso attack 0.73 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 71% | Draw 19% | Tromso 10%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.