Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stromsgodset 0.80 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stromsgodset register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 63% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 67% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.66 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.932 / defence 1.116 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.929 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.287. Data: 30 Stromsgodset games / 31 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 44% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 44% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Stromsgodset 1.66 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.932 / def 1.116 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.929 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 44% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.93) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (30/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.83
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.99
1.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.33 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 10D 13L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 8W 8D 14L from 30 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.03 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 5D 8L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Stromsgodset won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 60%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Stromsgodset) and 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset have failed to score in 33% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 53% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.66 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 44% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 30%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 67%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.03 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.