Rosenborg vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Mjondalen at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mjondalen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Mjondalen have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.40 PPG versus Mjondalen's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 2, Mjondalen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2020, ended 1–0 with Rosenborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games).
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 53% versus Mjondalen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 63% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.28 xG and Mjondalen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.358 / defence 0.821 | Mjondalen attack 0.904 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.287. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Rosenborg games / 30 Mjondalen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 66% | Draw 20% | Mjondalen 13%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Mjondalen 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 70% | Mjondalen 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 66% | Draw 20% | Mjondalen 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 56% | xG Rosenborg 2.28 / Mjondalen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.358 / def 0.821 | Mjondalen attack 0.904 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mjondalen xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Mjondalen kick off?
Rosenborg vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Mjondalen part of?
Rosenborg vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 66% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rosenborg and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Mjondalen in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.36) and Mjondalen's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
66%
1.50
20%
4.99
13%
7.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.24
0.95
Mjondalen xG
1.50
66%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
7.41
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
10%
9.82
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
1%
72.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.95 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 15W 7D 8L from 30 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 19L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 10W 2D 2L from 14 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 2W 2D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mjondalen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.97 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Mjondalen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Mjondalen away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.29 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Rosenborg 3-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Mjondalen?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 71%, Mjondalen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Rosenborg and 43% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rosenborg's games and 50% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Rosenborg's matches and 43% of Mjondalen's.
Do Rosenborg and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Rosenborg and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.28 xG and Mjondalen 0.95 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.36 / defence 0.82 against Mjondalen attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 66% | Draw 20% | Mjondalen 13%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.